tech trends to watch

Page history last edited by Brian D Butler 7 mos ago

 

Table of Contents:

  1. Internet Trends Map
  2. Clean-tech
  3. Cloud Computing
  4. Crowd-Sourcing :  Using the power of groups
  5. Blogging as a business
  6. online video 
  7. Software as service
  8. semantic web
  9. Mobile Web
  10. making technology affordable
  11. VoIP
  12. IPV6:
  13. Convergence of Internet and television
  14. Ultra Mobile PC's
  15. custom fabrication 
  16. Developer Platforms (for social networking companies)
  17. Peer to peer
  18. Data Portability
  19. Information overload 
  20. Putting computing technology in everything
  21. RFID into everything
  22. Cookies
  23. Search (human-style)
      1. Human powered search engine Mahalo raising $20M
  24. Personalization of the web
  25. Taking the internet "off line"
  26. Patent "trolling"
  27. Genetics - genome mapping
  28. Local Search - Local Reviews
  29. Old-media and New-media partnerships
  30. Targeting the Hispanic Market
  31. Outsourcing popular in tech startup community
  32. Consumer Electronics trends
  33. Media Disruption
  34. Web browser wars:
    1. Domain name speculation
    2. Forums
    3. Email & Chat - making them better with video & voice?
    4. Globalization of technology
    5. HD DVD vs. Blueray
    6. More topics from KookyPlan;
    7. Early-Stage Technology: 
    8. Clean Tech:
    9. Contributors to this page:
    10. External Links for more info:

     

    see also:  telecom trends ,  venture capital trends 

     

     

    Internet Trends Map

     

     

    Here it is, posted in a panic: Web Trend Map 4. We’ll give you a week for final feedback before we send it to the printer.

    Web Trend Map 4

     

     

    Clean-tech

    The Clean tech boom is one to watch.

     

     

    Cloud Computing

     

    More processing moving away from the user and into the ‘Cloud’, along the lines of Nick Carr’s new book The Big Switch, where he argues that computing power becomes a utility. However, Bill says “Moving everything onto the network may appeal in the rich countries of the industrialised world but offers little to rural India or sub-Saharan African countries. And there are massive security and data management issues to be solved.” But the potential benefits are “too great to be ignored.”  see also our discussion on data centers

     

     

    Crowd-Sourcing :  Using the power of groups

     

    Sites like Wikipedia tap into the collective knowledge of groups and create products better than individual companies can (think Encyclopedia Britannica, for example).   But the concept of group sourcing has applications way beyond simple encyclopedias.  For example we see companies tapping the collective knowledge of community to crowd-design clothing lines, pick the winner of American Idol, fund a football team, or even to predict the future.  

     

     

     

    Blogging as a business

     

    Yes, there is big money in blogging...see our discussion here

     

     

    online video 

     

    With the ultra popular site Youtube leading the way, we ushered in a new generation of online video "news" media, with the evolution of peer-to-peer video sites, we see challenges to the old media industry, and the introduction of new business models.   Definitely one to watch!

     

     

    Software as service

     

    Goldman Sachs prediction:  on-demand software as service market will exceed $21 billion USD / year by 2112.  

     

     

     

    semantic web

     web 3.0?

     

     

     

     

    Mobile Web

     

    One of the more interesting trends in technology is the movement of the internet away from the computer, and onto devices that travel around with people, such as cell phones, iPods, iPhones, PDA's, and so on.  The tech community is very excited about the possibility of bringing "location-based services" in which the cell phone knows where you are, and social networking and advertising services can be delivered to you based on people and services near your location.  This opens up the possibilities for mobile advertising, mobile VoIP, and much, much more....

     

     

     

    making technology affordable

    Reaching the "bottom of the pyramid" is not just a socially responsible goal, but its also good business, and companies around the globe are discovering new and innovative ways to expand their marketing reach to include the new consumers in emerging markets.  Technology for emerging markets.  As technology becomes more affordible, we are seeing the mass market appeal of emerging markets coming into play.  In addition, we are seeing mobile phones gain mass market shares (more than computer based internet), which opens up the possibilities of mobile banking, and other services.

     

     

     

    VoIP

     

    What about VoIP -enabled cell phones on WiFi?  With VoIP, you can make free international calls (using Skype).  With WiFi, you can access for free.  So, is that the end to traditional Telecom model?  Please comment.   Also, Video over IP....

     

     

     

    IPV6:

    Its pretty much a standard in lots of countries now, but the US will soon follow as the MSO and wireline provider push VIDoIP and need more address space for each customer. 

     

    The original numbering scheme, IPv4, is running out of addresses. It would have been out completely long ago if we had not moved to NAT and DHCP instead of locking down each device with a static global IP. IPv6 will not only allow more direct addressing space, but handles traffic much more efficiently. Especially bandwidth hogs such as streaming media. It would allow much more efficient internet broadcasting as one source stream could be tapped into at a local level rather than each stream being a unique feed. (mBone).  But IPv6 requires replacement of hardware as there is no translation between the routing schemes.  

     

     

     

    Convergence of Internet and television

    internet TV

     

     

     

     

     

    Ultra Mobile PC's

     

    Various devices have tried to fill the role between a PDA and a full-blown laptop over the years, but none has taken off.

     

    But 2008 could be the year when the Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPCs) finally have their day. The first devices were launched in 2006, but they have never gone mass market - partly because of a combination of high prices and poor battery life. But towards the end of 2007 a series of new products started to hit shelves.

     

    The most talked about was the Asus eee, a sub-£200 laptop about the size of a hardback book. The Taiwanese manufacturer has predicted it will sell five million of the tiny machines in 2008. The low-cost laptop runs open source Linux software and weighs less than one kilogram. To cut down on weight it does away with a hard drive in favour of just 4GB of flash memory. Whilst the storage is small, its use of flash highlights another trend of 2008.

     

    Flash memory has been gradually increasing in power. For example, electronics giant Samsung recently showed off chips that could be used to make 128GB memory cards.

    As a result the technology is now starting to challenge hard drives as the storage of choice on laptops.

     

    Apple is even rumoured to be launching ultra-thin Macbooks using flash in 2008.

     

     

    custom fabrication 

     

    a revolution in the way in which products are designed and (hopefully) manufactured.  With the combination of 3d modeling and custom fabrication, there is definitely potential for business model disruption here..

     

     

    Developer Platforms (for social networking companies)

     

    Websites are opening up their codes to allow outside innovation.  This trend was illustrated by Facebook, who opened up their system to the developer community, and welcomed outside talent to build little business models, and allowed them to keep profits.  This spawned other sites to also welcome outside developers, and the emergence of competing standards.  Now, there is a battle brewing amond platforms, and with google promoting a common platform for all delvelopers.. this is a fast developing story, that will change...please feel free to add your comments here....

     

     

    Any developer who builds an OpenSocial app, for instance, can make it work as a widget (er, gadget) on iGoogle.

     

     

     

    Peer to peer

     

    You may have written this off but it’s the true key to the next big wave of Hi_Def media distribution. Commercially sponsored P2P networks will be the key to distribution of HD content over the net in the next 5 years.  Asa Blum

     

     

    Data Portability

    Data portability is the business concept that web services should provide a method or methods for users to assert their ownership rights over the data they provide to and create within a web service.

     

     

     

    Information overload 

    see our discusson on attention economy

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Putting computing technology in everything

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    RFID into everything

     

    yes, big brother will be watching!   Next? Add even more info (of the multimedia kind) to these various ‘story prepping labels’ by adding any kind of interactive code to products. Keep a close eye on (or better yet, experiment with) SMS codes, QR codes, RFID, UPCODES and so on, especially as more and more phones will come with code reading software installed. In fact, expect infinite STATUS STORY prepping (including images, videos, micro-sites) to be 'attached' to products in the years to come. A few examples:

     

     

     

     

     

    Cookies

     

    Cookie tracking: How Facebook could be worth $100 billion?

     

     

     

    Search (human-style)

     

    for more, see search engine

     

    Human powered search engine Mahalo raising $20M

     

    However, another human powered search engine, ChaCha, just raised $10 million more financing, so Mahalo may be seeking to hold its own.

    See previous coverage here.

     

     

     

     

    Personalization of the web

     

    The Future of Personalized Start Pages

    The difference from old-style web portals are: the user can personalize them much more (with RSS, inline email, etc), the content is more interactive and potentially much more useful (i.e. gadgets, widgets), they can be collaborative, and there is Ajax pixie dust to make it more of a desktop-like experience.

     

     

     

    Taking the internet "off line"

     

    One of the biggest drawbacks of web applications is that they can only be used when there is an internet connection.  Although mobile working is becoming increasingly common, ubiquitous connectivity is still a long way off.  But there are tools that are beginning to blur the online and offline worlds...

     

     

    Patent "trolling"

     

     

     

    Genetics - genome mapping

     

     

     

     

    Local Search - Local Reviews

     

     

     

     

    Old-media and New-media partnerships

     

     

     

     

     

    Targeting the Hispanic Market

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Outsourcing popular in tech startup community

     

    There is an increasing trend even among the smallest of startup companies to outsource talent to emerging markets such as India, Argentina, Mexico, and Eastern Europe.   See more in our coverage of innovation clusters

     

     

     

     

     

    Consumer Electronics trends

     

    highlights from the CES (consumer electronics show in Las Vegas)

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Media Disruption

     

    The record companies showed us how not to deal with disruption, but it doesn't seem that many of the other big media companies have learned anything from it. Whether it's the huge amount of user-generated content that is showing up online, or just using new services to reach a new audience, this is the future of entertainment. How all this content gets onto the device you want to view it on, how you pay for it, who you can share it with and other questions are being debated now, and the answers will define our media consumption experience.*

     

    Digital Music changes the music industry:   News:  Apple’s iPod aura wearing off with music labels — Last month it was Universal Music Group, this month it’s Warner Music. As record label’s contracts with Apple run out, the companies are deciding they don’t really want to be in a controlling relationship, and would prefer to see other distributors. Both Universal and Warner are shifting to a month-to-month contract with Apple that will allow them to strike deals elsewhere. If the companies have figured out yet that they don’t have to be in constant control of their own content, that might even mean a few crumbs for startups.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Web browser wars:

    Sure, most people still use Microsoft's Explorer to surf the web, but other Innovations come up with new entrants, such as Mozilla Firefox, and others.

     

      [Web Wars]

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Why do browsers matter?

    While many people pay little attention to which browser they use, the choice makes a big difference to software companies. They can use the precious screen real estate to promote their own Web services. Moreover, they can tailor their browsers to ensure compatibility with their other products.

     

    Google enters the "browser wars": 

    In September 2008, google announced that it would enter the fight for browser audience with the release of google "Chrome". 

     

     

    Mozilla Corp., maker of the popular Firefox web browser, made $66 million in revenue in 2006 

    Opera

     

    Why Browsers?

    Browsers have some unique attributes that could be a social graph platform.

    1) Browsers are the one tool that we use across all websites.

    2) Browsers (like Flock) can present an experience on top of websites: they can add additional features, drop downs, and side bars that help you to navigate information from a network of people, not just the raw information of a website.

    3) Developer communities already exist around some browsers (most notably, grass roots Mozilla) and they can naturally build, extend, and improve the experiences.

     

    Browser Innovations:

     

     

    Domain name speculation

     

    News:

     

    Bubble Activity? Dot.mobi Names Sold For 6 Figures

    see: techcrunch.com

    14 Oct 2007

    The latest Moniker domain auction was held last week, and along with the usual multi-million dollar domain buys that we’ve come to expect from these domain auctions (computer.com went for $2.2 million), another domain many people might not have heard of, let alone used saw six figure sales.

     

    Dot.mobi domains we released for sale in September 2006 and are aimed at providing mobile phone specific websites. The dotMobi TLD registrar is financially backed by Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Ericsson, Vodafone, T-Mobile, Telefónica Móviles, Telecom Italia Mobile, Orascom Telecom, GSM Association , Hutchison Whampoa, Syniverse Technologies, and VISA.

     

    The Moniker auction saw three 6 figure Dot.mobi sales Poker.mobi for $150,000, Ringtones.mobi for $145,000 and News.mobi for $110,000. These join previous Dot.mobi sales of Flowers.mobi for $200,000, Sportsbook.mobi for $129,800, and Fun.mobi for $100,000. Other Dot.mobi domains to sell at Moniker were Email.mobi ($50,000), Podcast.mobi ($25,000) and PDA.mobi and Zipcodes.mobi ($8,000 each).

     

    Whilst domain speculation is hot at the moment, it’s not unreasonable to question this sort of money going into obscure domains at a time that new mobile phones (in particular the iPhone, but with many more soon following) display full web pages as opposed to a cut down mobile versions only.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Forums

     

     

     

     

    Email & Chat - making them better with video & voice?

     

     
     
     
     

     

    Globalization of technology

     

    Yes, you come up with a great idea in the USA, and it works well...and then...someone in Germany copies it, but offers it in multiple languages (which Europeans are good at doing), and next thing you know, they are selling well all across Europe, Latin America, Asia...and are doing better than the original.  This is an accelerated product life cycle.  Recommendation...launch world wide right from the start.  Go with multiple languages.  Dont give the clones a chance to beat you at your own game.  for more, see more troubles going global (business)

     

     

    HD DVD vs. Blueray

     

     

     

     

    More topics from KookyPlan;

     

     

    Early-Stage Technology: 

    KookyPlan was established to help entrepreneurs identify trends in emerging technologies and to better understand the fast-changing marketplace of ideas.  KookyPlan focuses on identifying emerging trends in technologies, economies and macro market forces.  

     

     

    Clean Tech:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Contributors to this page:

     

    contributors:

     

    *(add your name here, and link to your own personal profile page)

    *click here to learn more

     

     

    External Links for more info:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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